Sunday, April 20, 2014

Political Betting

I have long since reached the conclusion that one cannot make money from gambling. The people that do are what you would call professional gamblers. Bookies are rarely wrong. Nonetheless I do enjoy a day at the races and the occasional bet. I do it for the 'craic' and maybe to create more of an interest in a sporting event. I also like to view odds offered in order to determine likely future outcomes.

A €10 accumulator on Sinn Féin winning a seat in each of the four constituencies in the European Elections (being held on Thursday 22nd and Friday 23rd of May) returns a whopping €11.67! A dead cert in betting speak. This will be a massive boost for SF.

If SF winning 4 seats isn't a dead cert, Martina Anderson topping the poll in the Northern constituency certainly is. Odds being offered are 1/100. A €10 bet returns €1.10. Nationalist hopes of winning the third seat look likely to be dashed as Alex Attwood is priced at 8/1. The betting in full is:

Martina Anderson (SF)
Diane Dodds (DUP)
Jim Nicholson (UUP)
Jim Allister (TUV)
Alex Attwood (SDLP)
Anna Lo (Alliance)
Tina McKenzie (NI21)
Ross Brown (Green)
Henry Reilly (UKIP)
A Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition is the bookies favourite to form the next government at 5/4. Unthinkable just a few short years ago, the rise of Sinn Féin (over 20% on previous three opinion polls) may achieve proper left vs. right politics. Labour will not form the next government. Even though FG/Labour are priced at 13/8, I think Labour are in for an all merciful shock from the electorate. They have sold their sole and the electorate will not forgive their lies. A FF/Sinn Féin government is 8/1. SF will certainly find it tempting to be in power during the centenary of 1916 but if they have any sense they will force FF and FG into a coalition and wait.
Also of interest is the result of the Scottish Independence referendum. No is favourite at 1/4. Yes is 5/2. However other than the odds the underlying trend is also an important indicator. The odds for the Yes vote have been falling continuously. This is consistent with the opinion polls which now have the Yes side at 48% (excluding undecided) and on the brink of securing a historic victory in the referendum.